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Hard Market vs. Soft Market: When Should You Shop for Insurance?
You have heard the market is softening and you want to know whether that means shop now, stay put, or wait. Here is how to read the season yourself, with Texas numbers, and the two decisions that matter more than timing.
The answer
Texas home insurance is moving out of a hard season and into a softer one. In 2023, 3 percent of Texas homeowners rate filings that asked for a change asked for a decrease. Through October 9 of this year it is 65 percent. Carriers are hungry again and the whole market is on sale. Everything on sale is not a bargain. The coast, roofs past 15 years, and homes outside the standard market are still hard. A soft market means everything is for sale. The best thing you can do in one is pick a great carrier.
Full carriers, hungry carriers
Carrier appetite is a real term, and it means what it sounds like. In a hard market carriers are full. They push the plate away, nonrenew the coast, tighten the roof rules, and raise the price of the next bite. In a soft market they are hungry again. New products, new discounts, looser rules, and a sales floor that calls you back the same day. The textbook says the same with less flavor, premiums up, terms restricted, capacity down against low rates, high limits, and coverage that is easy to find. In a hard market carriers push the plate away. In a soft one they are hungry again.
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Full carriers, the hard market
- What it feels like
- Nonrenewal letters, a 5 percent deductible you did not ask for, a roof moved to a payment schedule, a carrier that stops writing your ZIP
- Why
- Too many claims and too little capital for the risk already on the books
- What to do
- Keep the policy that is keeping you, fix the file, and wait for the turn
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Hungry carriers, the soft market
- What it feels like
- New products, new discounts, looser underwriting, and quotes that come back lower than last year's
- Why
- Fewer claims, less pressure, and new money that thinks the risk looks low
- What to do
- Shop with the whole market in view, and buy the carrier that will still be there in the next hard season
The thermometer
Two public Texas numbers tell you the season, what carriers are asking TDI for, and how many Texans have been pushed to the insurer of last resort.
Share of Texas homeowners rate filings that asked for a decrease
Texas FAIR Plan policies in force
Nationally the story matches. Home insurers posted an underwriting gain of 16.5 billion dollars in 2025 and avoided an annual loss for the first time in six years, reinsurance stabilized, and filings for increases slowed into 2026. When the last resort gets busier, the market is hard. When it starts to empty, the door is opening.
Two ways a carrier makes money
There are two ways to make money as an insurance carrier. Write policies that claim less, for people who prepare and keep the house up, and pay the claims when they come. Or write bare bones contracts and cover less. Both show up in a soft market, because new money comes in when the risk looks low, and new money wants growth. Some of that growth is bought with policyholders' premium on riskier coasts, Florida, Louisiana, the Carolinas, and Texas too, by carriers that may not be big enough to carry the storm when it lands. When it lands, the rate shock comes home to every policyholder they have. A thin carrier's discount is a bet it placed on a coast with your premium.
The policy worth keeping
A client of ours has been with Travelers for 27 years. Her roof is 20 years old, and her policy still pays it at replacement cost, grandfathered in, because she never left. This year another carrier quoted her 28 percent less. The savings came from a roof payment schedule and a 5 percent wind and hail deductible, which on a 20 year old roof means she would be insuring the roof herself and paying for the privilege. Some carriers move a roof to a payment schedule as early as its fifth birthday, so how a roof is paid is the first line we read on any cheaper quote. She kept Travelers, kept her water coverage, and kept replacement cost on the roof, for about 110 dollars a month more. Great coverage isn't expensive. It's priceless on your worst day.
Another client, up in The Woodlands, has an 800,000 dollar home and had a roof about seven years old when hail came through in 2024. Travelers paid the claim and he got a new roof. From 2022 through 2026, with a paid claim in the middle, his home premium moved about 15 percent in total. He has a top tier insurance score, he rarely files, and he never bounces between carriers, and all three of those are the point. Four years, one paid roof claim, about 15 percent. That is what a strong carrier and tenure buy you.
Why jumping ship costs more than it looks
Tenure is a discount with a clock on it. Leave in year three for a hungry carrier's teaser and you reset the clock, and the longevity discount that was a year or two away never arrives. What you see in a soft market may be less this year. What you lose can be bigger around the corner. Contract versus contract still decides it, and the cheaper quote is often cheaper because it covers less. About 40 percent of the time we tell homeowners to stay with their current carrier, and sometimes even with their current agent, because that is the right answer for the family.
Stay when
- Your carrier held you through the hard years at replacement cost on the roof.
- A tenure or longevity discount is a year or two away.
- The cheaper quote is cheaper because of a roof schedule, a higher deductible, or a thinner contract.
- Your roof is past 15 years and the current policy grandfathers it.
- A claim is open.
Shop when
- Your file is clean, the roof is young, and your current carrier is still priced for the hard years.
- The renewal is 30 to 45 days out and the declarations page is in hand.
- A nonrenewal letter landed, or a 5 percent deductible or a roof schedule was pushed on you at renewal.
- The hungry carrier is a certified Rock Solid, with reserves and a record of paying claims in Texas.
- You want the whole market read against your contract, every quote next to every other.
What happens when you send it
The dream is simple. Know whether this is the year to move, and if it is, get the right carrier at the sale price. Here is the whole path.
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Five minutes
Send the renewal, or the quote that caught your eye
The declarations page is enough. Thirty to forty five days before renewal is ideal, and any day works after a nonrenewal letter.
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Free
We read the season for your house
The coast, the roof, the file, the tenure clock, and the discounts inside the cheaper quote, read against 50+ top Texas carriers we know well, contract before price.
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Your call
You get one of three answers
Stay, adjust, or switch, with the contract next to the price on every option. About 40 percent of the time the answer is stay, and we say so.
Before you take the discount
A soft market means everything is for sale. The best thing you can do in one is pick a great carrier.
A great carrier knows what to expect, how to price it, and how to deliver on the promise when the season turns again. Less risk in the ups and downs for you. We shop the whole market every time, and when the right answer is to stay, we say so and you keep what you have.
Charles McDade, LUTCF
Questions readers ask
Is Texas in a soft home insurance market right now?
It is softening. Through October 9, 2026, 65 percent of Texas homeowners rate filings that asked for a change asked for a decrease, against 3 percent in 2023, and the Texas FAIR Plan's policy count has started to fall from its 2025 peak. It is not soft everywhere. The coast, roofs past 15 years, and homes outside the standard market are still hard to place, and conditions differ by carrier and by product.
When should I shop my home insurance?
At renewal, 30 to 45 days out, with the declarations page in hand, when your file is clean and your roof is young. Shop sooner if a nonrenewal letter lands or a renewal pushes a higher deductible or a roof schedule on you. Shop less eagerly if your carrier held you through the hard years, a tenure discount is close, or a claim is open.
Will my rate go down if I stay?
Sometimes. Rates are filed by carrier and product, so a decrease at your carrier reaches you at renewal, and since January 1, 2026 you can ask at renewal for a re-rate on a current insurance score once a year. Nothing promises a lower bill, and your roof and rebuild number still move your price.
Is a cheaper carrier I have never heard of a safe bet in a soft market?
Sometimes. Ask who is behind it, whether it is admitted in Texas, how long it has paid claims here, and whether its discount comes from a thinner contract. Standard against surplus lines is its own page. A discount from a strong carrier comes with a steady next decade. A discount from a thin one comes with a whipsaw the first bad year.
Sources worth opening before you decide
- Home and auto rate filings, Texas Department of Insurance on the Texas Open Data Portal, downloaded October 15, 2026
- Q2 2026 Fact Book, Texas FAIR Plan Association, data as of June 30, 2026
- Texas FAIR Plan Association overview, Texas Department of Insurance, February 26, 2026
- Property and casualty rate review report, calendar year 2025, Texas Department of Insurance, updated February 3, 2026
- Best's Market Segment Report, a myriad of factors lead to markedly improved homeowners results, AM Best, September 28, 2026
- Hard market and soft market, IRMI insurance definitions
The purpose is to help the reader ask better questions before claim time.
See if it's time to shop
Everything is for sale this year. We help you buy the right thing.
Send us the renewal, or the quote that caught your eye. A licensed Texas agent reads the season for your house, the coast, the roof, the file, shops it across 50+ top Texas carriers we know well, and shows you what each discount is made of, contract before price. If the right answer is to stay, we say so, client or not. We translate the insurance contract before claim time.
The audit is free. The decision is yours. No broker fees for personal lines clients.
