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Houston Winter Guide

Get Ready Before the Next Houston Freeze

Your house, your car, and your people, ready before the cold, and a plain read of what your policy does if a pipe breaks.

Get My Freeze Checklist

The short answer

Nobody can tell you today whether Houston will see a hard freeze this winter. NOAA expects a strong to very strong El Niño, which tilts our winter wetter and a little cooler, and the polar vortex was knocked off balance in early November, earlier than ever recorded. Uri, in February 2021, is still the freeze Houston measures every winter against. This guide gets your house, your car, and your people ready, and shows what your policy does if a pipe breaks anyway.

This winter, as of November 9, 2026

What the forecasters know today, in plain English. This board changes when NOAA updates its forecast.

  • El Niño

    Strong to very strong

    Likely through January to March 2027, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said on October 8.

  • NOAA's winter outlook

    Wetter than average

    Most likely across the southern tier from December through February, NOAA said on October 15.

  • The polar vortex

    Knocked off balance early

    The earliest disruption on record, in early November. NOAA's forecasters say El Niño still leads this winter, and the disruption adds uncertainty.

  • Next check

    November 12

    NOAA's next El Niño update. This board changes when it posts.

Sources. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center El Niño discussion of October 8, 2026. NOAA's winter outlook of October 15, 2026. ECMWF scientists on the early disruption, reported by AFP, and the Climate Prediction Center's outlook, reported by Newsweek, November 2026.

February 2021, in my own words

I want to say this plainly. The polar vortex was knocked off balance in early November, earlier than forecasters have ever recorded. The storm Houston still measures every freeze against is Uri, in February 2021. Nobody can tell you yet whether this year's cold reaches us. It is the right time to get our homes and our people in order.

In February 2021 my family lived in Humble, and my son was six months old. The power went out at my house. My wife took the kids to her family's house in Friendswood, where they could stay warm, and I stayed with the house. I kept what heat I could, watched the temperature, and kept a trickle of water moving through the pipes. I even checked the Whataburger app to see which parts of town still had power.

Insurance is there for the unexpected. When I can do something to protect my own home, I do it. It's who I am, and who I have always been.

If I could change one thing, I would have had a generator, even a small one. Power is what keeps a small problem from becoming a large one. My home today has a whole home generator.

  • 13 degrees

    At Bush Intercontinental on February 16, 2021

  • 500,196

    Insurance claims reported across Texas

  • About 10.3 billion dollars

    What insurers expected to pay once every claim closed

Sources. NWS Houston's February 2021 climate summary. The Texas Department of Insurance (TDI) report on insured losses from the February 2021 freeze, December 27, 2021, with data as of July 31, 2021.

What El Niño changes, and what it never promised

El Niño tilts our winter wetter and a little cooler. It has never promised Houston a winter without a hard freeze.

  • About 70 percent

    of El Niño winters ran colder than average at Bush Intercontinental

  • About 77 percent

    of El Niño winters ran wetter than average there

Three hard freezes in Houston

  • December 1989

    7°F

  • February 2021 La Niña winter

    13°F

  • January 2024 El Niño winter

    18°F

Lows at Bush Intercontinental, with each bar showing degrees below freezing. In January 2024, an El Niño winter, it still fell to 18 degrees.

The last two winters

Snow covering brick homes, lawns, and parked cars on a Houston-area street, a holiday snowman in one yard, and a person in a black hooded coat packing a snowball in the foreground
January 21, 2025, the most snow the Houston area had seen in decades.

  • January 21, 2025

    Snow closed highways and both Houston airports. Bush Intercontinental measured 1.2 inches, and Hobby measured 3.0, its third most on record.

  • January 24 to 27, 2026 La Niña winter

    Ice and a hard freeze. Ice closed three roadways, among them IH-45 northbound in Galveston, and iced the ramps where Beltway 8 meets IH-69 near Humble.

Sources. NWS Houston's winter outlook study, which counts the freezes of 1983, 1989, 1996, 2018, and 2021 as La Niña winters and says El Niño cannot predict day-to-day weather. NWS Houston's climate summaries for February 2021 and January 2024. ABC13 on the 1989 record. FOX 26, citing the National Weather Service, on the 2025 snowfall, and the Associated Press on the closures. ABC13 on the 2026 roads. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, January 8, 2026.

Find your next step

Every winter question we answer, on the shelf where it lives. New pages join their shelf as they publish.

The House

The Road

After the Freeze

Water This Winter

The Wider Shelf

Your people and your numbers

Safety first. Family first.

If you are not safe, or you are not with your people, get to safety and get to community as fast as you can. Everything is harder until those two come first.

Charles McDade, LUTCF, Founder

Your people

  • Check on anyone near you who lives alone, before the cold and during it.
  • If someone at home depends on powered medical equipment, register with CenterPoint as a critical care or chronic condition customer, and with STEAR, the state's free emergency assistance registry, at 2-1-1.
    Neither one guarantees power or help, so plan a backup.
  • Put carbon monoxide alarms outside every sleeping area and on every floor. Carbon monoxide killed 19 Texans during Uri.
  • Run a generator outside only, at least 20 feet from doors, windows, and vents. Never in the garage, even with the door open.

Your numbers

  • Your carrier's claim line and your policy number, from your declarations page.
  • Our office, 281.378.5002.
  • A plumber you trust.
  • Your power company's outage line. Most of Houston is on CenterPoint.
  • Your water provider. Your water bill says whether you are on City of Houston water or a MUD.

Save them in your phone and on paper, and charge your phone and a backup battery before the cold.

Sources. The CDC and the CPSC on generators and alarms. The Texas Department of State Health Services final report on storm deaths, December 30, 2021. CenterPoint and the Texas Division of Emergency Management on STEAR.

Three lines to read before the cold

Pull your declarations page tonight. Three lines tell you what a freeze would cost you.

  1. The water line

    How your policy treats sudden and accidental water damage, the kind a burst pipe causes, and any limit on it. Flood insurance does not pay for a burst pipe.

  2. The deductible, in dollars

    Your all other perils deductible is the check you would write for a burst pipe. It is separate from your wind and hail deductible, so write the dollar figure down.

  3. Loss of use

    It pays for a place to stay when a covered loss makes your home unlivable. A power outage with no damage to the house does not count. After Uri, it was one of the questions our desk heard most.

One condition to know. Before a freeze, your policy expects reasonable care, the heat kept on, or the water shut off and the lines drained. A policy might not pay for frozen pipes if you took no steps to protect them.

When your policy already fits, we say so. About 40 percent of the time we tell homeowners to stay with their current carrier, and sometimes even with their current agent, because that is the right answer for the family.

How to read your declarations page

Sources. TDI's winter storm tips, updated April 29, 2025, its Bulletin B-0010-21 after Uri, and its additional living expenses tips.

The freeze checklist

One evening, one list. Print it, put it on the fridge, and work through it before the first hard freeze.

Print the Freeze Checklist

Free, two pages, no email needed.

  • The house

    • Wrap pipes in unheated spaces, like the attic and the garage.
    • Unhook hoses, cover outdoor faucets, and drain the sprinklers.
    • Find the main water shutoff and the key that turns it.

  • The drip question

    • Your water provider decides whether you drip.
    • The City of Houston asks its customers not to drip. If a MUD or water district serves you, follow its notice, which may ask you to drip.
    • Your water bill tells you which one you have.

  • The car

    • Check the brakes, the tire pressure, and the tread.
    • If you can wait out the ice, wait. If you have to drive, avoid bridges, ramps, and overpasses.

  • Leaving town

    • Leave the heat on.
    • Turn the water off at the main, and drain the lines.

Sources. TDI's winter storm tips and winter driving tips. Houston Public Works, reported by KPRC, January 2026, and one Harris County water district's winter storm tips, January 22, 2026.

Seven terms worth knowing before the cold

Read the Home Insurance Glossary

Read the Auto Insurance Glossary

We'll read your policy before the cold

Ready is something you build on a calm night, long before the first hard freeze.

  1. Work through the checklist tonight.

  2. Send us your declarations page, or book a short call.

  3. A licensed Texas agent reads the water line, the deductible, and loss of use with you, in plain English.

Check My Freeze Coverage Talk to a Broker

The review is free. The decision is yours. No broker fees for personal lines clients.

Carrier availability and underwriting vary by risk and location. Prefer email? Write to contact@mcdadeins.com, or call 281.378.5002. We translate the insurance contract before claim time.

Already a client, and changing something before winter? Schedule a Service Meeting.

The purpose is to help the reader ask better questions before claim time. General insurance education. For plumbing, electrical, or medical questions, ask a licensed professional, and follow your water provider, your utility, and local officials. Carrier rules, eligibility, underwriting, policy language, and the final contract control. Figures carry the dates shown.