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Does a Quiet Hurricane Season Mean I Can Drop Flood Insurance?

Picture of Charles D. McDade, LUTCF By   ·  10 minute read
The Texas Insurance Decision Guide

Does a Quiet Hurricane Season Mean I Can Drop Flood Insurance?

  • By Charles McDade, LUTCF
  • Updated October 16, 2026
  • Flood Insurance

El Niño makes the Atlantic quieter and Texas wetter. The last strong one gave Houston its wettest eighteen months on record without a hurricane. What the quiet means, what it does not, and the whole trade for the household thinking about letting the policy go.

Golden hour at a Cypress Creek crossing north of Houston, the creek low and glassy beneath the bridge, a dark high-water stain across the concrete piling well above the sandbar, cattails and a gravel bar in the foreground, pines and a subdivision rooftop beyond

The answer

No. A quiet season is a forecast about hurricanes, and Houston floods on rain. El Niño makes it harder for hurricanes to form in the Atlantic and raises the odds of a wet, stormy winter and early spring across Texas. The last strong one, 2015 into 2016, gave Houston its wettest eighteen months on record and five of the ten biggest weather events the Houston weather office logged for the decade, and none of them was a hurricane. NOAA says this one could be stronger. Whether your household carries the risk itself is your call, and this page lays out the whole trade. A quiet season counts hurricanes. Houston floods on rain.

The call we take in an El Niño year

The call goes like this. It is an El Niño year, the hurricane outlook is quiet, so this is the year to let the flood policy go. We understand the logic. The weather runs the other way. El Niño does two things at once. Fewer hurricanes form in the deep tropics, so the Atlantic count drops. And the southern tier, Texas included, tilts toward a wet and stormy winter and early spring. Houston does not need a hurricane to flood. It needs a line of storms that stalls over the bayous, and El Niño sets that table. The quiet is in the Atlantic. The rain is over Texas.

What El Niño makes less likely

  • Hurricanes forming in the deep tropics from African easterly waves, in NOAA's words.
  • A busy Atlantic count. The activity shifts to the eastern and central Pacific.
  • A long, active season of named storms in the Gulf.

What El Niño makes more likely

  • A wet and stormy winter and early spring across the southern tier, Texas included.
  • Cooler, wetter weather along the Gulf Coast through the winter.
  • The kind of rain Houston floods on. A stalled line of storms over saturated ground, no hurricane required.

This year, in NOAA's words

El Niño Advisory. El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong to very strong El Niño likely through January to March 2027, greater than an 83 percent chance, and chances remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950. Climate Prediction Center, October 8, 2026.

The last strong El Niño, pinned to Houston

Climate.gov puts the 2015 to 2016 El Niño on par with the record events of 1982 and 1997. Here is what it did here. May 2015 was the wettest month ever recorded in the United States, and Texas set its own record for the month. March 2015 through August 2016 is Houston's wettest eighteen months on record, by more than a foot. Five of the ten biggest weather events the Houston weather office logged for the whole decade sit inside that window. None of them was a hurricane.

  1. May 12, 2015Webster. Ten to fourteen inches on parts of Harris and Galveston counties
  2. May 25, 2015Memorial Day. Eleven inches at Brays Bayou, seven lives lost, the office's first flash flood emergency
  3. October 31, 2015Halloween. Ten to fifteen inches on eastern Harris and Liberty counties
  4. April 17 to 18, 2016Tax Day. 16.59 inches at Cypress Creek at Sharp, 15 inches at Bear Creek
  5. May 26 to 27, 2016Memorial Day again. 20.50 inches on Brenham, the Brazos up 25 feet in 40 hours
March 2015 through August 2016Houston's wettest eighteen months on record, 119.77 inches. No hurricane in any of it.
Five of the ten biggest weather events of the decade, by the Houston weather office's own ranking, inside one El Niño. The rain did not need a name.

Flood does not keep to a region

Every part of Texas plans for its own weather. Near the Gulf, the hurricane. Further north, the hail. Flood has never kept to a region, and this year made the point again, from the Hill Country in July, where the rain filled Lake Travis for the first time since 2019, ten feet in a single day, to East Texas in September and Dallas and the Panhandle after that. The deadliest flood in Texas history, in 1921, centered on Williamson County, north of Austin and nowhere near a coast. The storm that came this year missed Houston by a county, and the season El Niño favors, winter and early spring, has not started. Near the Gulf we expect hurricanes. Up north they expect hail. Flood shows up everywhere.

Hill CountryJuly 2026. Seven flash flood emergencies in one week, the Pedernales at major flood stage, Lake Travis full for the first time since 2019 and at 94 percent in mid October
East TexasSeptember 2026. Edouard, more than 24 inches near Thicket, 12 to 16 inches along the Liberty County line, 2 to 4 inches on Harris County
North TexasLate September 2026. Polo's remnants, stretches of interstate closed in Dallas, Amarillo's wettest September on record at 6.42 inches

The water has new places to go

Houston kept building after Harvey. A Houston Chronicle analysis counted about 57,000 homes built in mapped floodplains across the five Houston area counties since 2017, and about one new home in five going up in a flood-prone area. Along Cypress Creek, half the development permits of a quarter century came in the ten years before Tax Day. As Houstonians, we are still learning where the water goes with all this new concrete, and the maps are learning with us. The last El Niño fell on fewer rooftops. This one falls on the new subdivisions too.

  • 01Floodplain homes since Harvey
    The countAbout 57,000 homes in mapped floodplains across Harris, Montgomery, Fort Bend, Galveston, and Brazoria counties since 2017, half of them in the 100 year floodplain or a floodway
    Who countedHouston Chronicle analysis, reported by Texas Standard, September 2025
    What it meansEach one stands where water used to spread out
  • 02New homes in flood-prone areas
    The countAbout one in five homes now being built in the Houston area
    Who countedThe same analysis. Easy, dry land is running out, in the Chronicle's words
    What it meansThe next storm meets rooftops the last one never saw
  • 03Permits along Cypress Creek
    The countAt least 3,898 development permits from 1991 to 2015 along fifteen roads near the creek, half of them in the ten years before Tax Day
    Who countedHarris County Engineering data, reported by Community Impact, February 2020
    What it meansSpring and Klein sit downstream of that decade

Where floods actually happen

This is the honest part of the drop case, so here it is without the sales voice. Floods do not stay inside the lines on the map. Almost one third of NFIP flood claims across the country from 2014 through 2024 came from outside high-risk flood areas, and in Harris County the share runs higher. The Flood Control District's own line is that everyone lives in a flood zone, and that a major flood happens somewhere in Harris County about every two years. The zone on the map sets the lender's rule. The water sets its own.

Flooded homes and flood claims outside the high-risk zone

  • NFIP claims across the country, 2014 to 2024, outside high-risk flood areas
  • Tax Day 2016, Harris County homes damaged outside even the 500 year floodplain
  • Harvey, Harris County homes and apartment buildings damaged outside the 100 year floodplain
FEMA's count for the whole program, and the Houston Chronicle's counts for Harris County. The high-risk zone is where a lender requires the policy. It is a smaller place than where the water goes.

The whole trade, in two columns

Some households can carry a flood loss out of pocket. That is a real position, and we respect the people who hold it. If the premium is the pressure, say that first. The deductible, the limits, and the market you buy it in all move the number, and that is a conversation before it is a cancellation. Here is the whole trade, two columns, nothing in the footnotes. The one line we will not write is that dropping it is a good idea. One year's premium against the whole house, every year you make the call.

  • If you drop it

    What you save
    One year's flood premium, the number on your declarations page
    What you carry
    The whole loss, from the slab up. The home policy excludes rising water
    Getting back in
    Thirty days from purchase before an NFIP policy takes effect, and a policy bought the week a storm enters the Gulf does not cover that storm
    What you give up
    Continuous coverage, which locks in your rate when the map changes, discounts a lapse can take with it, and the house's standing for future federal aid if FEMA ever paid on it
    Where it lands
    One number nobody knows, the house

  • If you keep it

    What you pay
    The same premium, for the only policy on the house that pays for rising water
    What it pays
    Up to 250,000 dollars on the building and 100,000 dollars on contents through the NFIP, more where a private flood carrier writes it
    At claim time
    No waiting period. The policy is already in force the morning the bayou comes up
    What you keep
    Continuous coverage, the rate lock when the map changes, and the house's standing for future federal aid
    Where it lands
    One known number a year

What happens when you call

You want one thing from this page. A price for keeping it, and a plain read of what you would be giving up.

  1. 01

    Look up the zone

    The Flood Zone Finder takes seconds. Bring the address, the current flood declarations page if you have one, and the number you are hoping to save.

    Free
  2. 02

    We price it both ways

    The NFIP policy and the private flood market, side by side, with the waiting period and the limits read out loud. Current clients can also send the declarations page to contact@mcdadeins.com.

    On our desk
  3. 03

    You decide, with the whole trade in front of you

    Keep it, change it, or let it go. If the number is close, we say so. If it is not, we say that too, and we do not dress the risk up or down to get there.

    Your call

The price in writing, the trade in plain English, the decision still yours.

Your family, your street

It is your family. You know your street better than any map, and better than I do. I respect every household that reads the whole trade and decides to carry it themselves. But as an advisor, I can never say it is a good idea, because there is too much at stake in being wrong. Near the Gulf we expect hurricanes. Further north they expect hail. Flood has been an issue across the whole state, and that makes it the most inconsistent coverage a Texas family carries. The flood policy is the one thing on the house I cannot buy you the week you need it.

Charles McDade, LUTCF

Questions readers ask

NOAA says the hurricane season will be quiet. Does that lower my flood risk?

It lowers the odds of a hurricane. Houston's floods mostly come from rain, and the same El Niño that quiets the Atlantic tilts Texas toward a wet, stormy winter and early spring. The last strong one gave Houston its wettest eighteen months on record with no hurricane in it. The hurricane count and your flood risk are two different numbers.

I am in Zone X and my lender does not require flood insurance. Can I drop it?

You can. Zone X sets the lender's rule, and the lender's rule is the only thing it settles. Almost one third of NFIP claims from 2014 through 2024 came from outside the high-risk zones, and almost three quarters of the 204,000 homes and apartment buildings Harvey damaged in Harris County sat outside the 100 year floodplain. Look up your zone on the Flood Zone Finder, then decide with that number in front of you.

If I drop it now, can I buy it back when a storm shows up?

Not in time. An NFIP policy takes effect thirty days after purchase, with exceptions at a mortgage closing and within thirteen months of a map change, and a policy bought the week a storm enters the Gulf will not cover that storm. Private flood carriers set their own waiting periods. Why you cannot wait for a named storm walks through the calendar.

Does a lapse cost me anything besides the gap?

It can. FEMA says continuous coverage locks in a lower rate even if your map or zone changes, and that you may lose certain discounts if the policy lapses. If the house ever received federal disaster assistance for repairs or belongings, the aid rules expect a policy in force before it qualifies again.

What did the last El Niño actually do in Houston?

Five of the ten biggest weather events the Houston weather office logged for the decade. Webster and Memorial Day in May 2015, Halloween 2015, Tax Day 2016, and the Brazos flood of Memorial Day 2016. March 2015 through August 2016 was Houston's wettest eighteen months on record, and none of it came from a hurricane.

What if my household truly could absorb a flood loss?

Then the decision is yours, and we mean that. Some families can write that check and know their street better than any map. What we will not do is call it a good idea, because the downside is the whole house and the upside is one year's premium. Price it first. The flood quote is free, and the number belongs in the decision.

Keep going

Sources worth opening before you decide

The purpose is to help the reader ask better questions before claim time.

See the price before you decide

The hurricane outlook is quiet. The rain outlook is not, and the policy takes thirty days to start.

Price it before you drop it. We quote the NFIP policy and the private flood market side by side and put the whole trade in writing. Keep it, change it, or let it go with the number in front of you. If you would rather talk it through first, the broker conversation is a video call. We translate the contract before you sign for another year.

See My Flood Price Talk to a Broker

The quote is free. The decision is yours. No broker fees for personal lines clients.